About
Built by a Punter, for Punters.
Frustrated by AI tools that were just guessing in disguise, we built a simulation engine grounded in real mathematics.
The Story
Every NRL tipping tool on the market claims to use “AI” or “machine learning.” We used those too — five different versions of them. LightGBM classifiers. Gradient boosting with Optuna hyperparameter tuning. Temporal train/test splits on years of historical data.
The best any of them could do was 60-65% winner accuracy. The fundamental problem was clear: machine learning models treat teams as single entities. They average out individual player impact, crush zone-by-zone matchup data into aggregate features, and lose the granularity that separates a close game from a blowout.
So we scrapped it all and started from scratch. Instead of training a model to predict outcomes from patterns, we built an engine that simulates how outcomes are generated. Player-level statistical distributions. Four sequential game phases. Contextual adjustments for weather, referee, and fatigue. 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations per match.
The V6 engine is the result. 82% winner accuracy. Not because we found a better algorithm — because we asked a better question.
The Philosophy
Transparency Over Hype
Every prediction includes a full breakdown of the adjustments that shaped it. You can see exactly why we picked a winner, what the weather impact was, and how the referee factor shifted the odds. No black boxes.
Mathematics Over Marketing
We do not use the word “AI” because it does not describe what we do. Monte Carlo simulation is a well-established mathematical technique used in finance, physics, and engineering. We applied it to rugby league.
Public Track Record
Our results page tracks every prediction, every round. Wins and losses. No selective disclosure. If you are paying for predictions, you deserve to see the track record before you commit.
Player Data, Not Team Averages
The engine profiles all 17 players in a lineup individually. When a key player is out or a debutant comes in, the prediction changes accordingly. Team averages cannot capture this.
Get in Touch
Questions, feedback, or partnership inquiries.